Quick answer and prediction: Infinite18 picks Scottie Scheffler to win the 2026 FedEx St. Jude Championship. He begins Sunday at 13 under, two shots ahead of Sam Burns and Sungjae Im. Scheffler and Burns tee off in the final pairing at 12:40 p.m. CT. The pick is based on the official 54-hole leaderboard, final-round tee times, performance data and forecast available at 4:01 a.m. CT Sunday; it is not a guarantee.
The two-shot lead is only the starting point
Scheffler reached 13 under with rounds of 68, 61 and 68 at TPC Southwind. Burns and Im are tied for second at 11 under, while Jake Knapp and Tommy Fleetwood sit five strokes behind the leader at 8 under. The board gives Scheffler control without granting him safety. One water ball or one three-putt can erase two shots quickly on a course designed to punish loose approaches.
The stronger case is how Scheffler built his position. Through three rounds, he ranks third in Strokes Gained: Putting at plus-5.655, sixth in Strokes Gained: Tee to Green at plus-6.147 and seventh in Strokes Gained: Approach the Green at plus-4.923. His 68 putts on 42 greens in regulation are the best Putts per GIR total in the field. He is gaining in the areas that create chances and in the area that converts them.
Friday's record-tying 61 supplied the spectacular part of the week. Saturday mattered differently. Scheffler followed it with a steady 68 and preserved a lead even as Burns produced the round of the tournament. Holding position after an opponent shoots 62 is evidence that the advantage is not resting on one hot afternoon.
Scheffler's closing history separates the contenders
This will be Scheffler's 19th PGA Tour 54-hole lead or co-lead. He has converted 12 of the previous 18, including each of his last eight. Even more directly, he has won his last 10 tournaments when carrying the outright lead after 54 holes. The PGA Tour says only Tiger Woods, with 36 consecutive conversions, has produced a longer such streak in its available records.
That record does not make Sunday predetermined. It does show that Scheffler has repeatedly solved the exact problem facing him now: protect an advantage without becoming passive. His approach play creates enough opportunities that he does not need to fire at every dangerous flag, while his recent putting performance gives conservative targets value.
A victory would be the 21st of his PGA Tour career and his second this season. He arrived at the playoff opener first in the FedExCup, 794 points ahead of Matt Fitzpatrick, after 11 top-five finishes in 17 starts. Scheffler therefore brings both closing experience and a season-long floor that has kept him near the front even when he has not won.
Burns is the most dangerous alternative
Burns changed the forecast with a bogey-free 62 on Saturday, the lowest score of the week and his best round at TPC Southwind. Eight birdies moved him from the edge of contention into the final group, where he can apply pressure directly rather than waiting for numbers to reach the leaderboard.
He is also a five-time PGA Tour winner seeking his first title since the 2023 WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play. That experience makes him more than a player who happened to catch fire for one round. If Burns begins with two early birdies, Scheffler's advantage can disappear before the contenders behind them reach the turn.
The reason Burns remains the second choice is recent conversion. In his three previous starts this season when beginning the final round inside the top three, he finished tied for seventh, tied for fourth and third. Those are good results, but none closed with the trophy. Beating Scheffler from two back likely requires another aggressive round while avoiding Southwind's penalty areas.
Im has two races to win
Im shares second place after rounds of 66, 66 and 67. He tees off with Knapp at 12:30 p.m. CT, 10 minutes before the final pairing. That position offers an opportunity: Im can post pressure in front of Scheffler and Burns instead of reacting to every shot they hit.
He is pursuing a third PGA Tour title and his first since the 2022 Shriners Children's Open. He also entered the week 53rd in the FedExCup and is projected 35th through three rounds. According to the official notes, Im is the only player currently projected to climb from outside the top 50 into the group that advances to the BMW Championship.
That second race matters. The top 50 not only reach next week; they also qualify for the 2027 Signature Events. Im has a clear reason to protect position, but winning will require him to resist that instinct. From two behind, he needs enough birdies to make the final group chase.
The heat makes execution the final variable
The official Sunday forecast calls for sunny to partly cloudy conditions, a high near 101 degrees and a peak heat index around 110. Rain is unlikely, with a 10 percent chance after 1 p.m., and west wind is expected at 7 to 12 mph. Scheffler and Burns are scheduled to begin near the hottest part of the day and finish in it.
Those conditions strengthen the case for the most reliable ball-striker, but they also add uncertainty. Hydration, patience and decision-making become competitive skills across a four-plus-hour round. Firming greens can make a conservative target difficult to hold, while fatigue can turn one late swing into a penalty.
TPC Southwind is a par 70 measuring 7,288 yards for the championship. Its water hazards ensure that the lead can move faster than the weather suggests. Fleetwood and Knapp are five back, while Si Woo Kim, Alex Noren, Hideki Matsuyama and Viktor Hovland are six behind at 7 under. They need help, but an early charge combined with one mistake from the final groups would bring more names into the race.
The forecast: Scheffler wins, but not comfortably
The prediction is Scheffler because he owns the lead, the best closing evidence and a balanced statistical profile. Burns has the Saturday momentum, and Im has been the week's steadiest challenger, but both must take two shots from a player who has converted his last eight 54-hole leads.
The most likely path is not a runaway. Burns should force Scheffler to keep making birdies, and Im can set a target from the group ahead. The winning margin may depend on whether Scheffler continues converting enough of the chances created by his approach play.
At 4:01 a.m. CT, before Sunday's first tee shot, the pick is Scheffler. The confidence comes from evidence, not certainty. Memphis still has heat, water and two proven challengers waiting to test it.